November 19, 2024

Data from Native American Rights Fund (NARF) highlights the limitations of exit polls by Edison Research and the misrepresentation of Native communities

BOULDER, COLO. | Today, IllumiNative, Native American Rights Fund (NARF), Native Organizers Alliance (NOA), and the National Congress of American Indians (NCAI) addressed the misleading and incomplete data surrounding Native voter turnout and support as depicted in the 2024 presidential election exit polls conducted by the National Election Pool (NEP) and Edison Research.

Recent exit polls by National Election Pool (NEP) and Edison Research, have sparked concern due to significant limitations in methodology and scope, misrepresenting the number of Native peoples who voted for the Republican presidential candidate. Preliminary data shared by NARF shows otherwise – state-specific outcomes indicate that often as the state based population of Native Americans increases so does the support for Democratic candidates. For example, in counties with majority Native populations, support for the Democratic candidate was larger than support for the Republican candidate in states such as Montana (67% to 28%), North Dakota (72% to 27%), South Dakota (63% to 33%), and Wisconsin (87% to 12%). Native voters are not a monolith, however, and in counties with majority Native populations in states like Oklahoma, there was a preference for the Republican candidate (63% to 37%). These preliminary results will continue to shift as data continues to be collected and votes continue to be counted in many Western states with high Native American populations.

Edison Research and NEP’s exit poll data of 229 Native peoples is not reflective of the diversity of Indian Country due to its limited scope. This year, the NEP/Edison Research exit polls were conducted at only 279 election-day polling places and 27 early in-person voting locations. This exclusion of a substantial portion of early and absentee voters often results in an incomplete and skewed portrayal of the electorate. The methodology selects specific polling sites to represent the broader population, and this approach misses critical components specific to capturing Native American voter preferences. It remains unclear if Native voters from rural areas were accurately included to the degree of their urban and suburban counterparts, and notably, zero of the 306 polling places surveyed were on Tribal lands. In addition, respondents from the South were overly represented in the NEP/Edison polling (35%), compared to the respondents in the West (23%), Midwest (22%), and the East (21%). According to Dr. Stephanie Fryberg, Founding Director of the Research for Indigenous Social Action & Equity Center (RISE) at Northwestern University, the sample size for Native voters was insufficient to draw reliable conclusions about the nationwide voting trends within Native. In fact, the rush to report out on one exit poll of 229 Native people resulted in more questions than answers.

According to NARF, preliminary voter turnout in the majority-Native counties suggests a drop from 53.3% in 2020 to 48.8% in 2024, displaying a decline of nearly 10,000 votes that is reflective of the low voter turnout seen nationwide. This decline underscores the significant barriers that Native voters face in casting their ballots, as highlighted by the Indigenous Futures Survey, which points to challenges such as absentee ballots not arriving on time, polling places being too far away, and a lack of transportation. The comprehensive survey conducted by IllumiNative and the Native Organizers Alliance—the largest Native-led, nationally representative survey in the U.S.—further emphasizes these obstacles by capturing the voices and perspectives of Native communities across the country.

Indeed, structural barriers throughout Indian Country continue to stifle Native American participation in federal and state elections. On Election Day, the Native American Rights Fund sent 170 poll watchers throughout Indian Country who reported ongoing challenges faced by Native Americans including mismarked and distant polling sites, rejection of qualifying tribal ID, problems arising from the lack of residential addresses, hours long wait times, and lack of quality internet impacting voter services available to Native voters. Incidences of voter intimidation and escalated police presence were also reported. These observations only add to the voluminous record that voting across Indian Country remains unreasonably burdensome, as documented through the Native American Rights Fund’s extensive research and recorded voter experiences.

“It is important to gather and share accurate data about Native voter preferences, but it is equally important that we acknowledge the systemic obstacles that are keeping Native voices from being heard at all. At the Native American Rights Fund, we continue to document and battle the lack of equal opportunities to register and vote in Native communities: long distances to polling locations, inadequate housing, and no home mail delivery are still preventing Native communities from equitable voting opportunities,” said Jacqueline De León (Isleta Pueblo) of the Native American Rights Fund. “How many voters were disenfranchised this election season? How many votes were left on the table? So, yes, let's make sure that we report out accurate numbers on the influence and power of Native voters, but let’s also make sure that we continue to work toward free and fair elections that allow Native voters to have a voice.”“While national data points to turnout challenges and a lack of turnout in general, it’s essential to recognize the generational efforts within Indian Country that have empowered and engaged our communities in American Democracy,” said Michael Johnson (Three Affiliated Tribes of North Dakota), President of IllumiNative. “Our Natives Vote campaign was part of a larger community movement that has mobilized Native people and communities nationwide. Our Nations, communities and allies remain resilient and determined, and we will continue to strive for equitable representation in all facets of American life.”

“Accurate representation is vital to our democracy. The National Congress of American Indians calls for an equitable and comprehensive approach to exit polling that truly reflects Native voices across Indian Country,” said Mark Macarro (Pechanga Band of Indians), President of National Congress of American Indians. “Our communities, especially in rural and tribal areas, demand to be reported on with diligence and accuracy. Native voter influence must not be distorted and diminished. NCAI stands committed to ensuring that all Native votes contribute fully to the national discourse and to the advocacy of Tribal sovereignty.”

The 2024 election was a pivotal moment that highlighted both progress and challenges. The Natives Vote campaign, led by IllumiNative and NOA, bolstered turnout by reaching Native voters nationwide through on the ground and online efforts including community organizing training, digital organizing, phone banking, and local grantee investment.

“We partnered with Tribes and Native community groups in 12 states and worked with more than 160 Native community organizers on the ground,” said Judith LeBlanc (Caddo), Executive Director of Native Organizers Alliance. “Despite facing challenges such as limited polling locations, language, distances, and restrictive voter ID laws, Native communities were mobilized to exercise their constitutional right to vote. And now, we’re in a better position to activate our ground game to protect our sovereignty and sacred places and drive turnout in the next election”

Record-setting turnout in 2020 demonstrated the power of the Native vote and major policy shifts were enacted after the 2020 elections. Tribes and Native organizers are determined to organize for action on climate, economic security and sovereignty, because voting is only one part of democracy, power building is the heart of shifting to community-based policies. In order to foster long-term participation and amplify Native voices beyond major election cycles, it is essential to provide comprehensive data that accurately represents the wide-ranging beliefs and impact of Native voters.

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About IllumiNative

IllumiNative is a Native woman-led racial and social justice organization dedicated to increasing the visibility of—and challenging the narrative about—Native peoples. Our mission is to build power for Native peoples by amplifying contemporary Native voices, stories, and issues to advance justice, equity, and self-determination. We envision a future where the self-determination and sovereignty of Native peoples is respected and supported; where our children see themselves reflected in the world around them; and where Native peoples author and drive our own narrative.

About Native Organizers Alliance

Native Organizers Alliance (NOA) is a national Native network dedicated to power building and organizing capacity of tribes, and community groups for transformational policy change. It also provides a forum for tribal leaders, grassroots Native organizers and organizations to work in collaboration with each other and promote their work with non-Native national allies.

About Native American Rights Fund

NARF is the Nation’s premiere nonprofit 501c(3) organization focused on applying existing laws and treaties to guarantee that federal and state governments live up to their legal obligations to Native Americans. Since 1970, the Native American Rights Fund (NARF) has provided specialized legal assistance to Native American Tribal Nations, organizations, and individuals nationwide to assert and defend the most important Native rights. In hundreds of major cases. NARF has achieved significant results in critical areas such as tribal sovereignty, treaty rights, natural resource protection, voting rights, and Indian education. NARF’s voting rights practice group articulates the barriers faced by Native voters, advocates for equitable voting laws, and uses the courts to defend the fundamental right to vote. Like us on Facebook, follow us on LinkedIn, and visit us at narf.org to learn about the latest fights to promote justice and protect Native American rights.

About National Congress of American Indians

Founded in 1944, the National Congress of American Indians (NCAI) is the oldest, largest, and most representative American Indian and Alaska Native organization in the United States. NCAI advocates on behalf of tribal governments and communities, promoting strong tribal-federal government-to-government policies. NCAI promotes an understanding among the general public regarding American Indian and Alaska Native governments, people, and rights. For more information, visit www.ncai.org and www.nativevote.org